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Michigan

Mike Valenti’s Wednesday’s Watchers 9-7-11

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COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 27:  Quarterback Denard Robinson #16 of the Michigan Wolverines is sacked for a loss by Brian Rolle #36 of the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on November 27, 2010 in Columbus, Ohio.  (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 27: Quarterback Denard Robinson #16 of the Michigan Wolverines is sacked for a loss by Brian Rolle #36 of the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on November 27, 2010 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

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Week 1 Recap 5-0
Baylor (+6.5) vs. TCU—Baylor wins 5-48. Shootout where cover was never in doubt. Bears made quick work of TCU defense. Huge lead blown late.

South Florida (+10) @ Notre Dame—South Florida wins 23-20. Gave up a ton of yards but benefitted from ND turnovers. Again cover was never in doubt.

Boise State (-3) @ Georgia—Boise wins 35-21. Broken record but we nailed it. Cover was never an issue. Boise dominated the Dawgs and it could’ve been a lot worse.

Northwestern (+ 3) @ Boston College—NW wins 24-17. Tight game throughout. No Dan Persa but NW backup Colter played really well and as I said, NW was the superior team.

South Carolina vs. ECU OVER 62—a 56-37 final where we had the total with 2 minutes left in third quarter. A rare easy over. Overall not much I can say, we killed it this week. None of the games warranted a sweat. Going 5-0 is a rarity so enjoy it now. Remember the goal is 58%. Wish I could make it look like this each week but we know that is simply not possible. Let’s see if we can build on it and here is Week 2.

Week 2 Watchers
Arizona St. -7.5 vs. Missouri—anytime I see an unranked team giving a TD or more to a ranked team, I’m taking notice. Missouri looked awful in opener and while they still may have a very nice season I have doubts they are ready to go on the road and face a game Sun Devils squad.

Miss. St. -6.5 @ Auburn—I’ve said for a few weeks now Auburn would struggle to make a bowl game and last week’s performance vs. USU did nothing to sway me. They are young…real young. Miss. St. is mature, physical and dominates the line of scrimmage. I know giving 6.5 as a road favorite in SECland is tough but I think this is the right spot.

Oklahoma St. -13.5 vs. Arizona—once this thing crossed 14-points it became very attractive. I think it could be a very sloppy high scoring affair but the cowboys are in a different class than Zona. Should distance.

Notre Dame -3 @ Michigan—Book is telling you something here. Notre Dame is a lot better than what they showed last week with 5 turnovers. They also don’t believe Michigan is very good and I agree with them. QB change for the Irish as Reece is 4-0 as a starter. Fewer major errors should result in a win.

Georgia +3 vs. South Carolina—everything in my head says go with the Gamecocks but sometimes you gotta play on emotion. The Dawgs lose and Richt is gone. They are at home, wounded and desperate. Give me the points.

*** WARNING***
Be careful this week. Obviously we aren’t going 5-0 again but the week itself setup that I’m on a lot of chalk. Never good. If I weren’t required to pick five games I wouldn’t. This week scares me. Tight lines. A lot of road favorites. Just tread lightly. Hopefully we can increase your potato chips ever so slightly.

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