Mike Valenti’s Wednesday Watchers 9-14-11
Well the inevitable happened…the come down. Hopefully you read last week’s edition and heeded my advice. I didn’t like the card and really hated making even 5 picks.
The good news? I felt my reads on the games were spot on. Couple bad breaks really hurt what could’ve been and frankly should’ve been a 3-2 or 4-1 week.
Couple side notes before recapping the games and giving you Week 3 selections.
First things first, I don’t know how anyone does this in any serious fashion on a week to week basis. I just don’t. I’m stressed out for you guys and for my own “record” and cannot imagine what it would be like with a real amount of “potato chips” on the line. That’s a recipe for medication no doubt.
Secondly, later in the column this week I want to introduce a new feature. The feature is centered on a guy I’ve known in passing for a few months. He is indeed a bettor. HE really fancies himself as a sharp guy who does well. Yawn…doesn’t every gambler say that? Here’s the point. The guy fades himself on every pick. Let me translate for those who don’t understand what I just wrote. The guy picks a game and then takes the team he doesn’t like and bets it. Literally goes against his own handicapping on every pick and claims to win. At first I laughed and then somehow became fascinated with the guy. I mean how can you go against yourself? How do you sleep at night? For our purposes this gentlemen will be known as “The Black Cat” as it is the perfect moniker. I will present his one “fade” pick of the week. The pick is not mine and will not count on my record. It is simply his selection which I find highly entertaining and an additional discussion point.
Week 2 Recap
Georgia +3 vs. South Carolina- PUSH
Brutal push for us. Georgia handed USC 20-points off turnovers including a 65-yard fake punt TD. Georgia had no business losing much less pushing. Those are the breaks I guess. Still felt good about pick. Right side.
Arizona St. -7.5 vs. Missouri.—LOSS
A 37-30 final which included 22-penalties, a missed extra point and a huge late comeback all landed us our first loss of the year. ASU led 30-16 with 9 minutes to go and proceeded to muff a punt, commit two pass interferences on 3rd and 15+ and do absolutely nothing on offense. Perfect. We went from an easy cover to a loss.
Mississippi St. -6.5 @ Auburn- LOSS
Misread my hand here. Thought MSU was better side and they simply didn’t live up to the billing. Early INT for touchdown put us in a hole and MSU never fully got out of it. Stopped on goaline to end game was a fitting end to a frustrating contest.
Oklahoma St. -13.5 vs. Arizona—WIN
Easy win as OSU was clearly the better team. Never really was a contest. Got up early and bled the clock out late. Mike Stoops has major issues.
Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Michigan-LOSS
Sickening loss here. Notre dame had huge leads of 14-0, 24-7 and even had the cover late in miracle fashion only to lose it seconds later. I’ll go to my grave feeling like I selected the right side here. Worst loss of the week. Could not imagine how the bettors out there felt. Both sides. Amazing ending.
Week 2 1-3-1
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame OVER 51
Considering I think it will take 30+ points to win the game the over is a definite selection.
Ohio State +3 @ Miami (FL)
Might be the only time this season we can get OSU plus points. I wasn’t impressed with Miami in Week 1 loss to Maryland and although they do get several players back from suspension I just cannot buy in. I think OSU is in full circle the wagons mode after last week’s scare and should win a tough game.
Stanford -9.5 @ Arizona
I’m going to tail this Arizona team in back to back weeks because they are dreadful. Stanford surprised me and went cross country to cover a HUGE number last week. I like this under double digit line.
Michigan State +4.5 @ Notre Dame
Even if MSU loses, which is very possible, this series is always tight. I understand the books must balance money and get bets on both fronts but to get a team like MSU plus more than a field goal is wild. Yes if ND cuts the turnovers down they could win it, no question there. But does anyone not think MSU can move up and down the field in return on the Irish? Close game. Take the points.
Florida State +3 vs. Oklahoma
Home dog. At night. Biggest game in programs recent history. Legendary coach cancer revelation. Just too much here to go against Seminoles. This is their entire season wrapped up in one night. I’ll take the points.
***THE BLACK CATS FADE SPECIAL***
He loves LSU so in true Black Cat fashion he is rolling with Mississippi St. +3.0