DETROIT — Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index rose a small fraction in January, up 0.1 points to a level of 103.0.
The January index reading is 43 points, or 72 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9.
The index averaged 103 for all of 2012, 12 points above the index average for full-year 2011. December’s index reading was revised upward from 102.7 to 102.9.
“Following a strong December, our Michigan Index was mostly flat in January,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “The index components were mixed, with payrolls, hotel occupancy, construction and motor vehicle production stronger. Exports, sales tax revenues and claims were weaker. Auto sales have remained solid through the first two months of 2013, even as other consumer spending suffered from increased federal taxes. Looking ahead, Michigan remains vulnerable to reduced federal spending, as well as slower growth in the manufacturing sector compared with earlier in the recovery cycle.”
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
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