By Tom Millikan
So Stoney went out to Las Vegas in late April. He asked if I wanted him to make any future sports bets. I went to VegasInsider.com to see if any teams were good buys for a cheap bet of $25.
If you believe Reggie Bush’s Super Bowl optimism then you might like the Lions at 50-1. A $25 bet at 50-1 would be $1,250. While I agree with Bush that the Lions have a lot of talent, I need to see it materialize on the field before I ever bet on the Lions.
As I went down the list of Super Bowl odds one team stood out to me: the Cincinnati Bengals at 30-1. The Bengals closed the 2012 regular season winning seven of their last eight games. They have made the playoffs the past two seasons. They have a young nucleus on offense and an underrated defense that allowed just 12.75 points in their last eight games.
Do I think the Bengals will win the Super Bowl? Probably not, but I think they are a great bet. I’m not looking to bet a lot of money here. I’m just trying to get lucky on what I think is a good buy.
Vegas bases future odds on public perception. Two teams that missed the playoffs last year have better odds than the Bengals. The Giants are 18-1 and the Steelers are 20-1. I believe the Bengals are a better team, but the Giants and Steelers are well-respected teams who have won four Super Bowls since 2006. Those teams are publicly perceived to be better, so the public is likely to make bet on them more, hence the better odds.
I’d rather take the chance to win $750 on the Bengals at 30-1. Below is a poll question on teams at 30-1. Which one would you bet on?
Here’s a link to NFL future odds for the 2013 season http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/