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Leach’s List: DTM’s Bagels And Lox Week 5 NFL

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leach1 Dan Leach
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By Dan Leach
@dtmleach

As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding “Bagels and Lox” 1-10 scale. The fun continues.

  • NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS  1PM EST TV CBS (PATS -3.5)

KEY INJURIES
— PATRIOTS TE Rob Gronkowski DOUBTFUL-Arm WR Danny Amendola OUT-Concussion CB Aqib Talib QUESTIONABLE-hip
— JETS RB Bilal Powell QUESTIONABLE-Shoulder CB Dee Milliner PROBABLE-Hamstring

Normally I hate the 3 and a hook, but this is a Jets team that has been completely overinflated. As much as I like the future of Jets QB Geno Smith, this is not the type of game I can trust him with any members of my family yet alone a relative. The Pats aren’t nearly as good as their record indicates, but this is a matchup they have owned and a game they need as the Dolphins are not going to go away in the East. The Pats have also covered 14 of the last 14 games when playing the Jets in NY.

5.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE PATS -3.5

  • CHICAGO AT WASHINGTON   1 PM EST TV FOX (PICK-EM)

KEY INJURIES
–BEARS CB Charles Tillman PROBABLE-Knee
— REDSKINS- CB David Amerson QUESTIONABLE-Concussion LB Brandon Jenkins  QUESTIONABLE-Ankle

I am still honestly not sold on the Bears. I like what new coach Marc “Canada Day” Trestman has done with the Bears who if you forgot did win 10 games last year then fired a coach that took them to a Super Bowl. the bottom line though is the Bears still have Jay Cutler at QB and a defense that is not nearly as good as it was a year ago. The Skins are starting to put it together and this is a game they have to have if they are going to make a run in the dreadful , but wide open NFC East. Look for RG3 to continue his way back to what we saw him do last year and have a huge game in the Nations Capitol and WR Pierre Garcon is going to find seams in the oft troubled Bears secondary. Skins RB Alfred Morris is due for a true breakout game this season and I think that happens here.

6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE SKINS EVEN

  • CLEVELAND AT GREEN BAY  4:25 PM PM EST TV FOX (PACKERS -10)

KEY INJURIES
— BROWNS DL Billy Winn QUESTIONABLE-Quad
— PACKERS (half the team:) RB James Starks OUT-Knee CB Casey Hayward QUESTIONABLE-Hamstring DE Mike Neal QUESTIONABLE-Shoulder WR James Jones OUT-Shin LB Clay Matthews OUT-Thumb

This is one of those games that can show just how good or bad these two teams really are . The Packers were so many peoples fave to win the NFC North and have not looked at all like the dominant team many thought they would. they took care of a gritty Ravens team last night, but now face a Browns team who might have had to move on from the “Brian Hoyer Experience”, but has a QB in Brandon Weedon who wants to prove he can be the guy.

The loss to the Lions was bad last week for Cleveland, but they still have a rock solid defense and all the tools to hang with the Packers in Lambeau. This game will come down to who can control the ground game and it is not like G.B has that much more then the Browns in that department even with the improvement over the last two weeks of RB Eddie “Shoe” Lacy who has come back nicely from the concussion. Green Bay is also tremendously banged up and will be without All pro LB Clay Matthews. I think the Pack likely win this game, but the Browns will hang into the end.

6.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON CLEVELAND +10

  • CINCINATTI AT DETROIT 1PM EST  TV CBS RADIO 97.1 THE TICKET (LIONS -2.5)

KEY INJURIES
— BENGALS RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis PROBABLE-Illness CB Terence Newman QUESTIONABLE-Abdominal
— LIONS TE Tony Sheffler DOUBTFUL-Concussion RB Joique Bell PROBABLE-Ribs CB Rashean Mathis QUESTIONABLE-Groin T Jason Fox QUESTIONABLE-Groin

The Lions host a team that has playoff and beyond aspirations itself in the Bengals and while Cincy started the season off with a whimper they have been steadily improving each week and come into this game at 4-2 and leading the AFC North. The Bengals have a great D Line with Carlos Dunlop and Michael Johnson on the ends and Domata Peko and Geno Atkins in the middle and the Lions O line play against them will be key. That has been one of the great areas so far this season for Detroit has LT Riley Reiff has had a tremendous year protecting and keeping QB Matt Stafford clean.

Neutralizing the Bengals D line is huge but also have a good running attack against it is just as important. Reggie Bush is going to be a big factor in this game as he always can change a team’s offensive ability to open up other areas , but against this defense it will be even more key. I think this will be a hard fought game down to the end, but the Lions have looked good at home this season and are do for a complete performance at Ford Field. They get it done with huge days for Bush, Johnson, and Stafford.

7.4 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE LIONS -2.5

  • BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH  4:25 PM EST   TV CBS     (RAVENS -2)

KEY INJURIES

– RAVENS WR Brandon Stokley PROBABLE-Groin
— STEELERS LB Jarvis Jones QUESTIONABLE-Concussion WR Markus Wheaton OUT-Finger DE Brett Keisel QUESTIONABLE-Ribs

The Steelers have been abysmal so far this year , but found success finally last week against a Jets team on the road that many were starting to buy into and beat them in dominating fashion. the crazy thing to is even though Pittsburgh is 1-4 they still are not dead in the AFC and that is why this is pretty much win or say goodbye to any postseason chances. The Ravens come off the tough two point loss to the Packers and have definitely experienced the Super Bowl hangover.

As bad as the Steelers have played they still have an awful lot of talent on both sides of the ball and their games with the Ravens always seem to come down to the wire. Pittsburgh is coached by one of the best in football in Mike Tomlin and they will be ready for the defending champs at home and know this an all in type of game. Look for Big Ben to have a big day against a good , but not great anymore ravens secondary and for RB Le’Veon Bell to continue to show why he was such a great pick for the Steelers, cause in games like these the game can be won by tough running and will on Sunday.

8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE STEELERS -2

DTM’S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK- Odds of Jacksonville going 0-16 100$ wins 1000$ on the YES bet. Assist RJ Bell of Pregame.com

Season Stats

Last Week-2-3

Season to Date-18-13

Dan Leach was the biggest player behind the scenes that helped end the government shutdown, once hang glided from Washington State to Baha, Mexico on a dare, invented cheese doodles in 5th grade Home-Ec, and is a finalist for the first human manned mission to Jupiter.

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