By Dan Leach
Follow Dan on Twitter @DTMLEACH
As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding “Bagels and Lox” 1-10 scale. The fun continues…….
NEW ORLEANS AT NEW YORK JETS 1PM EST TV FOX (SAINTS – 6.5)
The Jets are the NFL’s version of beer goggles. They look great from far away when your hammered , but then the more you sober up you realize they are just plain ugly. I love Jets QB Geno Smith and think the future is bright for him, but right now the Jets are just too Jekyl and Hyde for me to trust them against a team as good as the Saints. Look back to last weeks game against Cincy for all you need to know about how well that vaunted Jets D is playing right now. Saints could make this a laugher in the first half and it doesn’t hurt that NOLA is 13-2 in last 15 ATS when Sean Payton is legally on the sidelines.
5.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE SAINTS -6.5
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA 1 PM EST TV FOX (PANTHERS -7.5)
This season thus far has been nothing but a nightmare for Atlanta who at 2-5 is about as far away as they can be from the SB contender so many including me thought they were. The crazy thing is that even with as bad as they have played they are not dead yet in a wacky NFC. This is the absolute last chance they have to do anything in 2013 and play against a team that they have had a lot of success against in the past 5 years. The Falcons are also 22-5 ATS after a loss in their last 27 and 16-1 ATS after a loss of 6 or more in their last 17 of that ilk and I get 7 and a hook?. This is also the first time the Panthers have been favored over Atlanta since 2008 and the biggest favorite they have been against ATL since 1997.
I think that Panthers have the better offense right now and are playing well on D, but this is a divisional game against a truly desperate team that still has enough weapons to not only keep this game close, but win it on the road. I think Cam Cam will get his yards and the Panthers will score against a Falcons D that is under performing lately, but look for Matty Ice to have a big game and for the Falcons to show the fight their great coach Mike Smith always instills in them.
6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE FALCONS +7
KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO 1 PM PM EST TV CBS (CHIEFS -3.5)
I know this game has trap written all over it for a team that is going to lose at some point so why not on the road in a game the Chiefs could possibly be overlooking. Well I will tell you why not——No E.J Manuel for the Bills. Without the high flying rookie QB at the helm the Bills have simply looked awful and no disrespect to the great Thad Lewis, but he was cut by the Lions early this season for a reason. The Chiefs simply have too much balance on both sides of the ball and the Bills will likely have to play a perfect game to have a chance in this one. Without Manuel that is not going to happen on a Chilly Willy The Penguin day in Orchard Park.
6.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE CHIEFS -3.5
PHILADELPHIA AT OAKLAND 4:05 PM EST TV FOX (STEELERS-2.5)
Well last week it was Pittsburgh and this week the Raiiiiiders get a chance to sweep the state of Pennsylvania as the hapless Eagles come into town. For all the talk of how awesome the Eagles offense would look with Chip Kelly and the 864 plays a game they would run when they have the ball, it has been nothing but stunned silence as of late for the Igles. I have been telling you all year that the Raiders are a much better team them most will give them credit and they continue to stronger as QB Terrelle “Richard” Pryor gets stronger.
I like what I am seeing out of the Oakland D and the offense has weapons that can spread a defense out which has been a problem for Philly all season long. If Oakland wins this game they will be a legitimate fringe playoff threat and that is just what HC Dennis Allen has been telling his squad. Look for a complete effort out of the Silver and Black and for the muted Philly offense without Mike Vick to struggle all day against the Raiders pressure.
7.4 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE RAIDERS -2.5
PITTSBURGH AT NEW ENGLAND 4:25 PM EST TV CBS (PATS -6.5)
Ok these are def not your sisters roommates Steelers and these are definitely not your brothers second cousins Patriots. That being said both these teams are shades of what they have been over the past several ytears, the one caveat is the Pats are 6-2 and lead the AFC East and the Steelers are 2-5 and are at the bottom of the AFC North. A funny thing happened on the way to Foxboro though. Pittsburgh is starting tpo show signs of life and still has an offense that can dominate you. The Pats D has been an issue at times this season and the offense can go completely silent as well.
This much like the Falcons game against the Panthers is the Steelers last chance to do anything this season and you know Mike Tomlin will have them ready. This is also the largest dog the Steelers have been with Roethlisberger at QB since 2007. Big Ben knows about that as he heard it in line at the Pittsburgh DMV when he was renewing his motorcycle license earlier this week before the trip to NE.
8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE STEELERS +6.5 (BUY THE 1/2 POINT UP TO 7)
DTM’S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK- Odds of Jacksonville going 0-16 100$ wins 650$ on the YES bet. Down from +1000$
Kansas City Chiefs 13-1 to win Super Bowl 48-Was over 100-1 to start the year
Season to Date-19-17
Dan Leach is on the short list for possible Hilary Clinton 2016 running mates, once hang glided from Washington State to Baha, Mexico on a dare, was the basis for the gritty heroine Katniss in the Hunger Games book trilogy, and is a finalist for the first human manned mission to Neptune.