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Five Reasons The Pistons Will Win 40 Games [BLOG]

By: Brian Chapman
@bchapsports

Did you know that the Pistons tipoff their season tonight in Denver against the Nuggets? Unless you're a diehard fan, probably not because there's been as much buzz about them as there was about the start of the Red Wings season. It's hard to blame people for not getting excited when they've experienced six straight losing seasons, Greg Monroe took the worst possible option for the Pistons by signing the qualifying offer, the biggest free agent signing was Jodie Meeks, they had no first round draft pick to drool over, their second round pick missed most of last year's college season with a torn ACL and of course King James reentered the division this summer.

So yeah, the season starts tonight and for the reasons I just outlined, fans aren't all that excited and expect minimal improvements from last year. Perhaps four more wins to finish 33-49 and in the bottom half of the lottery again.

But my crystal ball says otherwise. It says there's reason to believe in 40 wins and a playoff appearance and here's why:

1. They finally have a coach… And not just any coach. Stan Van Gundy is undoubtedly a top 10 coach in the NBA, maybe even the third best. After Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers who is clearly superior to SVG? I'd put Van Gundy squarely in the mix with other 2nd tier coaches in the NBA like Rick Carlisle, Tom Thibodeau, Lionel Hollins, Frank Vogel and Scott Brooks. Even if you put Van Gundy behind those five coaches, that puts him no worse than the 8th best coach in the league. Compare that to who's been roaming the sidelines since Flip Saunders was fired: Michael Curry, John Kuester, Lawrence Frank, Maurice Cheeks and John Loyer. Those five has combined to coach exactly zero games since leaving Detroit. (Frank was last seen as the video coordinator for the Nets last year.) The Pistons go from those five coaches to a man whose 64.1% winning percentage in the regular season is one of the best in NBA history. He has finished seven NBA seasons and in those seasons his teams have finished no lower than third in his division, won four Southeast Division championships and made the playoffs every time. He is also 48-39 once he gets to the playoffs, meaning when he gets there, he wins, including his trip to the 2009 NBA Finals. Now this Pistons team does not yet have the talent of his teams in Miami and Orlando, but Stan Van Gundy is a winner whereas the previous five coaches are not NBA head coaches right now. That will make a huge difference this year.

2. They can shoot… Last year the Pistons ranked 20th in the NBA in field goal percentage (44.7%) and 29th in 3 point field goal percentage (32.1%.) What did you expect when Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings were jacking up wild threes, Kyle Singler was the team's "sharp shooter" and rookie Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (who I believe will be much better than last year) who was drafted specifically to shoot, made less than 40% of his shots? This offseason Van Gundy let poor shooters like Rodney Stuckey, Charlie Villanueva, Will Bynum and Peyton Siva walk and replaced them with Jodie Meeks, DJ Augustin and Caron Butler. Trust me, I don't believe that trio is going to represent the Pistons in the 3 point shooting contest during All Star Weekend or light it up for a combined 60 points per game, but these guys can actually shoot a three-point shot in the rhythm of the game at a respectable clip. Last year each of them made at least 39.4% of his 3pt attempts. Aside from Jonas Jerebko (who rarely played), no one shot that well from downtown last year for the Pistons. When you have so many horrendous three-point shooters on the team, it left players like Jennings and Smith no choice, but to crank out bricks from beyond the arc just to spread the floor. This year I expect those two to take far fewer long range shots because they will be able to trust their teammates. When you consider the Stan Van Gundy offensive system requires solid three-point shooting to go with a dominant force in the middle, there's reason to believe that while the names aren't big, the ingredients are there for much better offensive success this year.

3. The East is terrible… That's one thing people always forget when I tell them the Pistons can be much improved and win 40 games in a season. Do you realize the No. 8 seed last year was six games below .500? Do you realize that only four teams won more than 44 games last year? Do you realize that the No. 3 seed was the Toronto Raptors and they only won 48 games? That's it. 48 games! And so many teams have enormous question marks. The Cavs are clearly better than the Pistons with LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but David Blaat is their coach. He was coaching in Israel last year! Can anyone really trust Derrick Rose to stay healthy in Chicago? Indiana won 56 games last year, but crumbled down the stretch, almost lost in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the playoffs and now they'll most likely be without Paul George for the year. The Knicks, Nets and Bucks have new coaches. Bottom line: everyone in the East has flaws and most teams are heavily flawed. The Pistons have 52 games against these teams. If they can win 28-30 conference games, they should be able to win the 10-12 games against the West that they need to get into the playoffs.

4. Josh Smith will play power forward… That will certainly be the case for the first two games of the season while Greg Monroe sits out due to his DUI suspension, (by the way, only two games for a DUI? The NBA isn't exactly taking a zero tolerance approach to drinking and driving), but I expect that to be the case during the regular season as well. I know that Van Gundy never used the same starting lineup twice during the preseason and Moose started several of those games, including with Andre Drummond and Josh Smith, but I expect Monroe to come off of the bench and to rarely play with Drummond and Smith at the same time which would allow Smith to play power forward 90% of the time. When that happened last year and Smith took shots from the paint, he was at his best and was a scoring force. With better three-point shooting teammates and with an "understanding" that he must take fewer threes this year from Coach Van Gundy we should see a more efficient Josh Smith. Based on preseason results, he's already getting the hint. He attempted just seven three-point shots in seven games (that's one per game for those who are slow with math.) Compare that to the 3.4 he attempted per game last season and you can't help but believe his game will change this season for the better.

5. Drummond is ready to explode… Last year Andre Drummond finished the season as the second best center in the league (only behind Dwight Howard) and will continue to close the gap this season. Last season Drummond finished second in the NBA in rebounds per game (13.2) and second in the NBA in field goal percentage (62.3%) while scoring a career high 13.5ppg and that was with Maurice Cheeks and John Loyer running the show. Van Gundy's system got the most out of Howard and will do the same for Drummond. The high amount of three-point shots (for example, 28 attempts in the preseason finale) will create plenty of chances for offensive rebounds and give room for Drummond to operate on the low block without a ton of double teams. Now I know what you're thinking. "Drummond doesn't have any post moves and based on what I've seen the previous two years, they're not going to dump it down low to give him a chance." First of all, I was at the preseason opener against the Bulls and I saw the Pistons calling plays for Drummond, so expect him to be a bigger part of the offense. Secondly, in Howard's third season in the league, he didn't have any post moves and still managed to score 17.6ppg. Finally, the last time we saw Drummond in action in the regular season, he was building up some serious momentum for this season. In eight games last April he scored 18.4 points per game with 17.4 rebounds per game, highlighted by a 26 and 26 game against the Bulls. As long as Drummond stays healthy, he's a lock for the 2015 All Star Game.

This team is still far away from contending for a championship. Until they get a top 50 player to pair with Drummond who can handle the ball at PG, SG or SF they will have no chance to win 50 games in a season. However, the Pistons should be an exciting, relevant team that wins 40 games and makes the playoffs. Even if they only win one game or get swept in April, it sure will be fun to talk about a Pistons playoff team again this spring.
By the way here's my prediction for the Eastern Conference Playoffs:
1. Cleveland
2. Chicago
3. Toronto
4. Washington
5. Indiana
6. Miami
7. Detroit
8. Charlotte
And in the NBA Finals, as much as I despise the Clippers, I have to take them in six over the Cavaliers.

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