Analysis: Clearly Intent On Bolstering Rotation, Tigers Smart To Consider Shields
By Ashley Dunkak
@AshleyDunkak
CBS DETROIT - In examining whether the Detroit Tigers should sign James Shields, perhaps the best way to begin is to examine what the rotation looks like without him, both in 2015 and beyond.
The Tigers enter this season with David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene. General manager Dave Dombrowski has expressed comfort with the rotation as it is, and ESPN baseball insider Buster Olney ranked that group as the sixth-best in baseball.
Price and Simon become free agents after the 2015 season, and their departures will leave Detroit with Verlander, Sanchez and Greene, who Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reports does not have a guaranteed contract. In the past two seasons, in part due to injury, Verlander has not pitched at the All-Star level he did earlier in his career. Sanchez started only 21 games in 2014 because of an injury. Greene, 25, has pitched only 14 games in the major leagues. Verlander and Sanchez could stay healthy and true to form, Greene could continue his early success, and - no matter who the fourth and fifth pitchers turn out to be - the rotation could still be solid for a few years.
The chance that the Tigers rely on all those situations unfolding perfectly, however, seems remote.
Detroit would have added Max Scherzer to that group had he accepted its offer before the 2014 season of $144 million for six years. With that in mind, it stands to reason that as much as Dombrowski says the organization is content with the current rotation, Dombrowski would prefer to make it better.
It seems unlikely the Tigers will jump over the moon, financially speaking, to sign Scherzer, though they could. Shields seems a reasonable alternative both in talent and in cost. As the second-best starter on the market, Shields could give Detroit the stability it evidently craves without wreaking the same degree of havoc on the payroll that Scherzer would.
If the Tigers would need to pay the 33-year-old Shields $110 million for five years, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported earlier this month, they might be wise to refrain from splurging, given how the production of pitchers tends to fall as they age.
The durability of Shields makes him unique, however, and perhaps less susceptible to those norms. Sports on Earth lists only five other pitchers since 1990 - Verlander, Greg Maddux, Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez and Mike Mussina - who like Shields have recorded 200 innings or more in eight straight seasons.
Giving a 33-year-old starting pitcher a long-term deal can always be considered a risky endeavor, but Shields might have a better chance of beating the odds than many of his contemporaries.
An ideal offer for the Tigers to present to Shields might be in the neighborhood of four years and $88 million. It seems unlikely, of course, that would be Scherzer's best financial offer. Some other team more desperate for starting pitching could easily ante up five years and $100 million or more, so if the Tigers highly value making their rotation better, they may have no choice but to pay Shields what he wants.
It remains to be seen whether the dollar amount is the deciding factor for Shields, who has pitched in two World Series but has yet to win a ring. If the Tigers can convince him that he will have another run at a championship if he comes to Detroit, perhaps the Tigers could get him for less than his asking price.
No one knows how long Shields can continue to pitch the way he has the past four years- he has recorded an ERA of 3.17 over his last 134 regular season starts - but his track record and Detroit's need make him worth a close look.
