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Dan Leach's 2015 NFL Locks: Week 6 'Sweet Sticks'

By Dan Leach
@dtmleach

It's almost hard to believe that we've already steamrolled our way to week six of the NFL season. My NFL picks are heating up, helping you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I'm taking a look at five games this week with the best value and rating them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 Bagels and Lock scale. And……Away….We…..Go!

DTM Song Of The Week: "The Giver" By Duke Dumont

The man tabbed with bringing House music back like Justin Timberlake brought sexy back, Duke Dumont is actually in Motown this weekend for what should be an off the hook show at the famous Majestic. Listen to this song and try to not start dancing, either in actuality or just inside your heart. I dare you!

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars  4:25 p.m. Sunday, TV: CBS  (Jags -1)

The Texans are simply god awful and while the Jags let me down last week in their loss on the road to Tampa Bay, I really like the upside of this team. QB Blake "Run For The" Bortles is really coming into his own and the Jags have a lot of weapons on offense and a D that is capable of making big plays. This game will be close, but the Jags are simply the better team right now.

5.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Jags (-1)

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks  4:05 p.m. Sunday, TV: Fox (Hawks -7)

Carolina is off their bye week and looking to stay undefeated as they travel to the NFL's toughest building to play in. Hawks blew a huge lead last week at Cinci and could be flat at the stat of this one. Cam Newton and that potent Carolina offense is the perfect remedy to the stout Seattle D and this game has a feel of one that the Seahawks might be behind in for most of the way. Look for Newton and company to give Seattle fits all day and while they might not win outright, the touchdown is just too many points to lay against the high powered Panthers coming off almost two weeks of rest.

6.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Panthers (+7)

Kansas City at Minnesota 4:05 p.m. Sunday, TV: CBS (Minny -4.5)

Kansas City can't be this bad under the Cheesesteak Andy Reid, right? Well maybe they are. But this is the week that at least for one game, they'll look like the team that opened the season with a win on the road at Houston and had the offense and defense working that day and not much since, save parts of the Denver game that K.C choked away in almost historic fashion. This week is a great spot for the Chiefs to get well against a Minny team that has shown some flashes of brilliance this year, but more flashes of weakness when you look at their overall quarter to quarter play. A big breakout game for K.C TE Travis Kelce is on the horizon and I feel like it happens this weekend.

7.1 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs (+3.5)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1 p.m. Sunday, TV: Fox, Radio: 971 The Ticket  (Lions -3)

Well the Lions are bad, really bad right now, but to be totally honest even with two last minute wins in a row, the Bears aren't much better. In Chicago's last nine games in Detroit they have covered only once.  Here is some more for you -- in the Bears last 12 games the week before they play Minnesota which is the case this year, they gave covered only once. While the Lions season is totally whacked sticks now as the NFL's only winless team after five weeks, they have a chance to right the ship here for at least one week. While Lions fans will have to deal with a lot more grief in 2015, for one week there will be some good feelings in Motown and the franchise QB Matthew Stafford who was inexplicably benched last week in the lambasted at home by the Cards, will have by far his best game of the season.

LIONS 34 BEARS 19

7.4 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – LIONS (-3 buy down to 2.5)

New England at Indianapolis  8:30 p.m. Sunday,  TV: NBC (Pats -10)

Can you say double revenge game? The two teams at the root cause for the headache and NFL embarrassment that was Deflate Gate get it going this time in Indy with the Pats coming off their bye week and looking like the best team in the NFL before it. This number seems absolutely insane to me with Luck and the Colts playing at home even with how great N.E. has played so far this year and the added Tom Brady "Take No Prisoners or Legal Stances"  anger factor. The Colts likely will lose this game, but they will hang in it long enough to make you feel good about the insane ten point home dome dog.

8 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Pot Luck Dinner and the Colts (+10)

ODDS TIDBIT

Latest Super Bowl 50 Odds. Packers are the fave at 3-1, Pats 4-1 and the most popular choice, Arizona up to third overall at 10-1 along with the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. Dave Riger-noted Peyton Manning DB's Denver Broncos are at 12-1, and the beloved Detroit Lions sitting pretty at 1000-1, dead last in the NFL for the league's only winless team. #UGHHHSTICKS

DTM'S 2015 Record ATS: 13-12

DTM'S 2014 Record ATS: 58-40-1

DTM's ATS Record in last 15 Super Bowls: 13-2

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