Brian Chapman's 2015-16 Detroit Pistons Preview
By Brian Chapman
@bchapsports
1. The Pistons will look different this season.
The first difference is the roster itself. Seven players -- 46.7 percent of the roster -- on the Pistons opening night roster were not on the team when last season ended. Included are starters Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris, as well as reserves Stanley Johnson, Steve Blake, Aron Baynes and Reggie Bullock.
If you haven't watched a Pistons game since the beginning of December, you can crank up the number of new players to nine (Reggie Jackson and Anthony Tolliver) or 60 percent of the roster.
Going back even further, only three players on the Pistons opening night roster remain from the Joe Dumars era -- Brandon Jennings, Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. That's an 80 percent overhaul, meaning these are not the #SameOldPistons…
Because of the completely revamped roster, expect to see improved 3-point shooting. Stan Van Gundy loves to load up his team with 3-point shooters and Blake, Morris and Ilyasova all have made at least 36 percent of their 3-pointers for their careers while Johnson made 37 percent of his threes at Arizona.
The year before Van Gundy took over, the Pistons shot 32.1 percent from downtown, which was 29th in the league. Last year, it was 34.4 percent. In the preseason, the Pistons were fourth in 3-point shooting at 36.8 percent, so it looks like the trend will continue to go upward.
Reggie Jackson will be here for the entire season, not just part of it. Remember what happened when he came to the Pistons last year? The Pistons won their first game, then lost their next ten. Why? Because Van Gundy had to break in his new point guard.
The Pistons had similar struggles at the start of the year when Van Gundy was trying to break in Brandon Jennings. This year Van Gundy won't have to break in a new point guard because Jackson has been with the team for over eight months. Perhaps that will prevent the inexcusably long losing streaks.
Andre Drummond will create more of his own shots. This preseason Drummond scored at least 12 points in each game and averaged 15.5 points per game, and not because he was relying solely on alley oops and tip dunks. He has a couple of post moves and he's even shown the ability to drive the basket off the dribble. He did so twice in the final preseason game when he was matched up one-on-one near the free throw line.
After the game Van Gundy said, "it is something that he worked on in the summer so that's the first time we've seen it in the exhibition season, but he did work on it this summer. He's got great quickness." If he can do that three or four times per game without turning the ball over, that could really give Pistons opponents a pregame headache.
Finally, no Josh Smith. Not for 28 games. Not for one game. Last year the Pistons were 5-23 with him and 27-27 without him. A .500 record in the Eastern Conference gets you a playoff spot.
2. Stanley Johnson will be better than Justise Winslow, but not as good as he wants to be this year.
On draft night, Pistons fans saw Justise Winslow fall right into their lap and were begging for Van Gundy to pull the trigger on the Duke star. (For the record, I thought they should have taken Kansas forward Kelly Oubre even if they had to trade down a few spots to justify it.)
Instead, the pick was Stanley Johnson. Fans were crushed that Winslow wasn't a Piston and not even Johnson's declaration of "Detroit vs. Everybody" on national TV could console the fan base.
Then the Orlando Summer League happened. It was only five games against players who were mostly either recently drafted or fighting for a training camp roster spot, but Johnson shined. He shot 58 percent from the field and was arguably the best player in Orlando. He was so impressive that the normally patient Doug Karsch jumped on his bandwagon after just two games. Since then others have become believers in Johnson and some even believe he will win rookie of the year.
My belief is that Pistons fans will be happy with the pick at the end of the season. Johnson is a little bit taller and more athletic than Winslow and the Pistons staff loves his maturity. They say he doesn't act like a typical 19-year-old. I think he'll have a better rookie season and career than Winslow, but he won't reach all of his expectations in his first year.
After the final preseason game, I asked him if he expected to win the Rookie of the Year or be on the First Team All-Rookie team and surprised me when he said, "The whole nine (yards.) My competition is not just rookies. It's the whole league. It's my position. It's everybody."
If you're a Pistons fan, you have to love his attitude and his aspirations, but even he knows he won't beat out Stephen Curry or LeBron James for the MVP this year. Once again, I think he'll have a very good rookie season, but I'll go with Karl-Anthony Towns to win Rookie of the Year.
3. Ball movement on offense will be the team's biggest key to success.
In the two preseasons games I attended, ball movement by the Pistons was the biggest factor in determining the outcome of the game. In the second preseason game, the Pistons lost 93-83 to the Nets. They had 19 assists, committed 21 turnovers and shot 41 percent.
After the game Van Gundy said, "I thought it was a very selfish performance. Guys wouldn't just pass the ball to the open man. They wanted to see if they could take one more dribble and get their own shot and so the passing angles are gone. I thought we forced it play after play after play and were not willing to move the ball around."
He also called the offense "far below mediocre." In the preseason finale -- a game where Caldwell-Pope, Jackson and Ilyasova did not play -- the Pistons beat the Hawks (who did not play Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Al Horford and Tiago Splitter) in blowout fashion, 115-87. In that game they had 32 assists, 14 turnovers and shot 53.5 percent from the field.
The ball movement was noticeable, as everyone was constantly and unselfishly looking for the open man. When Van Gundy was asked about the ball movement after the Hawks game he said, "it inspires other people. Everybody else wanted to make passes. You see Jodie (Meeks) coming in and he wants to make passes. Darrun (Hilliard) is looking for guys to throw the ball to. Everybody wanted to pass the ball. We say it all the time. We've said it to our team a lot. It's contagious and it's contagious the other way too when guys start forcing and not moving the ball."
If the Pistons can catch the Ball Movement Flu, the offense could raise some eyebrows and look pretty good. If the Pistons get sick of passing the ball around, it will be a long season.
4. Leadership is a major question mark.
If you're a follower of this team, you know there is not a name brand All Star like a James Harden or a Dirk Notwitski on the Pistons. There isn't even a fading star veteran who's seen it all like a Kobe Bryant, a Kevin Garnett or a Paul Pierce.
Anthony Tolliver, Joel Anthony and Steve Blake are the only players on the roster older than 28. Five players are 22-years-old or younger and the team's highest paid player is 25-year-old Reggie Jackson. That means leadership could be a major question mark this season for the Pistons.
Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond will have to grow up quickly and their leadership skills will be tested. Jackson wants this role and wanted it so badly that he vomited on the court in his first game as a Piston. Since then he has calmed down and the front office has spoken highly of his efforts this summer to grow team chemistry. Considering he recently signed the biggest contract in team history -- five year and $80 million -- he'd better become a strong leader in a hurry.
Andre Drummond is the team's other franchise player and he expects a much larger deal -- near five years and $120 million -- next summer. He's been a more vocal leader on the defensive end than in the past and in the paint he'll be required to do more after the departure of Greg Monroe.
During the summer, training camp and preseason these two seem to have fared well in their new roles, but they won't truly be tested until times get tough. With seven of the first ten games taking place on the road, those tough times could come quickly.
5. The Pistons have to make the playoffs this year and they will.
The Pistons have missed the playoffs each of the last six seasons and have had a losing record each of the last seven seasons. There are lots of reasons why that has been the case, but this year there cannot be any reasons or excuses -- barring a catastrophic injury to Jackson or Drummond -- for why they miss the playoffs.
They simply have to get there and they will.
If you look at the Eastern Conference, it's still not very good. The Pistons are not in the same class as Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington or Toronto, but they're far better than New York, Philly and Orlando. That leaves the Pistons fighting with six other teams for the final three playoff spots.
I have the Pistons finishing with a 43-39 record. Considering last year's No. 8 seed only won 38 games and the No. 6 seed was 41-41, that should be more than enough wins to make the playoffs. I think that will give the Pistons a No. 7 seed and an eventful first round exit.
If the Pistons can creep their win total up into the mid-40s, that would allow them to avoid Atlanta and Cleveland in the first round. A Pistons team that doesn't have to worry about those two in the first round has a shot to make it to round two. A Pistons team whose win total is in the mid-30s or worse and doesn't make the playoffs -- barring a catastrophic injury to Jackson or Drummond -- would be a complete failure.
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