Dan Leach's 2015 NFL Locks: Week 3 Is The Magical Number
By Dan Leach
@dtmleach
It's almost hard to believe we're already in week 3 of the NFL season. My NFL picks are heating up, helping you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I'm taking a look at five games this week with the best value and rating them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 Bagels and Lock scale. And……Away….We…..Go!
DTM Song Of The Week: "Ocean Drive" By Duke Dumont
This soaring song by one of EDM's greatest DJ's Duke Dumont, who is truly bringing house music back in a big way, will put a smile on your face. Try playing it with the top down on a cool night, that's of course if you have a convertible.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN (Packers -7)
The Chiefs come off one of the biggest gagged away losses in recent memory when they forgot how to play football at the most opportune time against Denver last Thursday night. The Packers have looked all the part of one of the NFL's best in their 2-0 start and big win over Seattle last Sunday. This is one of those games that could send one of these teams trending towards a division title, even though its early in the season. It's going to come down to the wire and I would not be shocked if the Chiefs pulled off the outright win, but K.C. backers have to feel good about this number: The Chiefs are 14-4 against the spread in the last 18.
5.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs (+7)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans 1 p.m. EST Sunday, CBS (Colts -3)
Who would have though one of the preseason Super Bowl faves in the Colts would be 0-2 with an absolute must win on the road against a Titans team that has shown signs of life so far this year? Titans QB Marcus Mariota looked phenomenal in week one and came back down to Earth a little in week two, but I see huge things for the kid this season. Colts QB Andrew "Pot Luck Dinner" could not have looked much worse in the MNF loss to the Jets and knows that he and his team have to play 180 degree better or their season could be over before it begins. This is going to be a competitive game, but in the end the Colts will be too much in a desperate situation for a young, but improving Titans team.
6.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Colts (-3 buy down to 2.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys 1 p.m. EST TV Fox (Falcons -1.5)
The Boys have lost their fantasy football QB as Tony Romo is out at least eight weeks, so now its the Brandon Weedon show, at least until he gets the axe for Matt Cassel. Weedon has lost nine straight starts straight up and ATS so this is a great spot, even on the road, for a Falcons team that I see only getting stronger as the season progresses. Look for the Dirty Birds to win this one going away at Jerry World.
7.1 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Falcons (-1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets 1 p.m. EST Sunday TV Fox (Jets -2.5)
The Eagles can't be this bad right? Well maybe they are, but they find themselves in an absolute must win situation here against a team that is playing with house money in the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS. While NY looked impressive in their lambasting of the Colts on Monday Night Football, I am still far from sold on the Jets ability to do that consistently. Chip Kelly knows his "Great Experiment" is on the line, much like the early days of the great American Experiment, question is which way. At least for this week it will all come together for the embattled Kelley and his even more embattled QB Sam Bradford.
7.4 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Eagles (+2.5)
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions 8:30 PM EST Sunday TV NBC (Broncos -3)
You know all the ugly numbers, you know what 0-3 would mean, you know this is simply WIN....OR ELSE for the Lions. The Broncos come in on extra rest and a miracle last-minute win last time out against the Chiefs. Detroit could not have looked much worst for the last six quarters as they found a way to rush for only 38 yards as an entire team last week in the loss at Minnesota. That came after the total implosion in Saint Diego where Detroit could do nothing right in the second half after taking a 21-3 lead in the first.
Now the Lions come back home for the first time this year, on their first turn on SNF since NBC took over the franchise. The crowd will be insane, the atmosphere will be amazing, and the emotions will be running high. The big question is can the Lions take advantage of that against the NFL's 2nd ranked defense so far this season and actually have an offense that looks like it deserves to be in the NFL? The answer is yes! While this might only be a one week fix for a team that was 11-5 last year the Lions will look much like that team did at its best in one of the biggest home games in Detroit in recent memory. Look for Stafford, Abdullah, Tate, and the Lions Front 7 to have a big game in a win that as much as the first two games were total team losses, will be a massive team win.
DETROIT 34 BRONCOS 28
8 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Lions (+3)
ODDS TIDBIT
Lions now 45-1 ($100 wager wins $4500) to win the NFC after opening season 18-1 ($100 wins $1800) and now 100-1 ($100 wins $10,000) to win Super Bowl 50 after opening the season at 40-1 ($100 wager wins $4000) Lowest the Lions have been odds wise since 2012
DTM'S 2015 Record ATS: 7-3
DTM'S 2014 Record ATS: 58-40-1
DTM's ATS Record in last 15 Super Bowls: 13-2
