Dan Leach's 2015 NFL Locks: Week 5 'I'm Alive'
By Dan Leach
@dtmleach
It's almost hard to believe we're already in week five of the NFL season. My NFL picks are heating up, helping you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I'm taking a look at five games this week with the best value and rating them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 Bagels and Lock scale. And....Away….We....Go!
DTM Song Of The Week: "Open Heart" By Morgan Page featuring Lissie
While it has been brutal so far this season for Lions fans, just listen to this EDM toe-tapper by one of the genre's best in Morgan Page, with soaring vocals by American folk singer Lissie. Just another reason why Electronic Dance Music is the future -- and a great message to dejected Lions fans that if you just open your heart, all will be OK in the end.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders -- 4:25 p.m. Sunday, TV: CBS (Broncos -4.5)
While the Broncos have one of the Leagues best D's, their offense has left a lot to be desired. Oakland blew it last week in a game they basically had won against a horrid Bears team, but the Raiders actually have talent and a pulse this year and could recover. This is the first time in at least eight years they have had a legit chance to beat Denver in the Black Hole, and their fans will be absolutely on fire from the start of this one. Yes, Peyton Manning is 6-0 straight up and ATS against the Raiders, but that has a great chance to change on Sunday. Look for the Raiders to be in this one till the end and an outright win would not surprise me in the least if they can force Manning to make a couple bad decisions that lead to turnovers
5.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Raiders (+4.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Bucs -- 1 p.m. Sunday, TV: CBS (Bucs -3)
The Jags let a big win fade from their grasp against the Colts last week in Indy by deciding to employ Jason "Michael" Myers as their filed goal kicker and after three huge misses last week, seems like he would be better suited kicking in the Arena Football League. While Jacksonville gaffed away a possible huge win to get them to 2-2 instead of 1-3, I like what I am seeing from Gus Bradley's squad. They have offensive weapons in fantasy stud second year WR's Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, a QB in Blake Bortles that seems ready for a breakout year, and a D that can cause fits for opposing offenses. Lovie Smith's Bucs are going to face a lot of growing pains this year and this week against an angry but talented Jags team will be one of them. One more tidbit for you, the Bucs are 15-38 in their last 53 games at home in the Big Pirate Ship.
6.5 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Jaguars (+3)
Arizona Cardinals Detroit Lions -- 4:05 p.m. Sunday, TV: ESPN, RADIO: 97.1 The Ticket (Cards -2.5)
Well, we all know what happened last week.
It is definitely time to move on, but the #SLEEPLESSINSEATTLE game as I've termed it will sting for a while. Now, the Lions come home against the 3-1 Cards, who are off a stinging loss at home to the Rams, as a home dome dog. I have been telling you for years: Don't bet against a home dome dog! Especially when its one coming off one of the most brutal bad beats in recent memory.
The Lions have had their issues on both sides of the ball all season until the 4th quarter in Seattle, but this the prefect spot for it all to come together for them. Look for by far Detroit's best four quarter performance this season and for Carson Palmer to be hurried, hit, and harassed all day long. Detroit will come out hungry and angry and will play with a passion for 60 minuets that we haven't seen this season. For one week, the Lions will look like the team many of us thought they would be in 2015.
LIONS 28 CARDS 24
7.1 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – LIONS (+2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals -- 1 p.m. Sunday, TV: Fox (Bengals -3)
The Hawks come off a win due to the gift that keeps on giving, NFL refs, as they know they were lucky to get out of Seattle with a win over the Lions on MNF. Now they face an undefeated Bengals team that seems to be firing on all cylinders. Marshawn Lynch is out again for that pedestrian Seattle offense, and the Bengals offense has enough weapons to beat any defense -- even one of the best ion the league like Seattle's. The Hawks have also struggled mightily playing in the Eastern time zone and that will continue in the Queen City. Cincy is also 15-4 in their last 19 ATS in the regular season at home.
7.4 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Bengals (-3 buy down to 2.5)
St Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers -- 1 p.m. Sunday, TV: FOX (Packers -10)
The Rams seem to be one of those teams that most of the league might be sleeping on, but have a tremendous amount of talent and could be a threat going forward. You saw glimpses of that in their big road win in the desert over Arizona last week, and they come into Lambeau with a lot of confidence. The Pack have easily been one of the league's two best teams so far this year with the Pats, but this is going to be a struggle for them against the Rams tough D. I look for G.B. to win this one, but for it to be a battle down to the wire.
8 on DTM Bagels and Lock of the Week Meter – Fighting Jeff Fisher's (Rams) (+10)
ODDS TIDBIT
Michigan Wolverines futures odds in Vegas are on an absolute tear! After starting the season at over 200-1 and in some places 250-1, Michigan moved to 150/1 on Sept. 28 after BYU win, the 4-1 Wolverines now have the ninth-best odds at 22/1. Nuts sticks! Haven't really seen a move this precipitous in a long, long time.
DTM'S 2015 Record ATS: 12-8
DTM'S 2014 Record ATS: 58-40-1
DTM's ATS Record in last 15 Super Bowls: 13-2
