Stafford Looks To Be Middle-Of-The-Road Fantasy Pick For 2020

CBSSports.com - (CBS Detroit)

Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings: Top 24 expert rankings show disputes around Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield.

When looking into the rankings for the 2020 season, there's a lot that is still left to sort out. Rosters are mostly set after the NFL Draft and free agency, but that doesn't mean we know what NFL rosters are really going to look like by the time we're drafting in July and August. There will be position battles, unexpected breakouts and, as always, injuries to contend with that can shake up the Fantasy landscape.

But that's less true at quarterback than any other spot, which explains why there's also less disagreement at that position among the Fantasy Football Today team's rankings than any other position. While there were huge disagreements at both running back and wide receiver, quarterback doesn't feature nearly as many.

For example, between Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, Ben Gretch and Adam Aizer, there is total agreement on Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson being No. 1 and 2, and the top-six quarterbacks are same for all five in some order. The disagreements get more serious from there, and we'll get into them later, but as you can see in the chart below, these guys agree more than they disagree at quarterback:

Still, that doesn't mean it's all hive mind, here.

Biggest disagreements

Drew Brees – Dave vs. Ben and Heath

Among the top-12 quarterbacks, this is the biggest disagreement we can muster, but it isn't a minor one — it's the difference between a must-start guy and someone you're playing matchups with. Last season, the No. 7 QB in points per game was Patrick Mahomes at 24.1; No. 12 was Aaron Rodgers, at 20.3. That's not nothing. Brees, for his part, was No. 3 in per-game scoring in 2019 and No. 6 in 2018, so it's not exactly a stretch to think he'll be top seven this season. However, it's still betting on an old quarterback who contemplated retirement, who shares the field rather frequently — especially in the red zone — with a gimmick quarterback who threatens to steal touchdowns from him. Michael Thomas is an awfully nice safety blanket for Brees, as is Alvin Kamara, but if something happens to either of them, the weapons in the Saints offense don't look so hot.

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Matthew Stafford – Ben vs. Adam

In case you forgot, Stafford was the No. 2 quarterback on a per-game basis in 2019, passing for 19 touchdowns and 2,499 yards in eight games before suffering a season-ending back injury. Ben clearly hasn't forgotten, and it's clear Stafford has considerable upside with an offense built more around taking deep shots than it has been in recent years. The key is going to be what the Lions' investment in D'Andre Swift in the second round of the draft means for their approach. We know Matt Patricia would like to run the ball more, but the Lions haven't been able to put an effective running game together for most of the last decade. Could Swift and a healthy Kerryon Johnson change that? Stafford is at his best for Fantasy when he's allowed to lean into his inherent gunslinger tendencies, but that may not fit with what his coaches want to see.

Baker Mayfield – Heath vs. Adam 

I think there's pretty much unanimous agreement that Mayfield still has the potential for a significant bounce back. After all, he has one of the best groups of weapons any quarterback can throw to, and the Browns made significant moves to upgrade their offensive line. We're also hoping the coaching staff is much improved as well, with the addition of Kevin Stefanski as head coach. That is, I assume, where Heath's skepticism toward Mayfield comes from, however. Stefanski should be an improvement over Freddie Kitchens, but his greatest success came with the Vikings last year, one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Browns figure to be pretty run heavy themselves, which will limit Mayfield's opportunities. He'll need great red zone efficiency and a ton of big plays from Odell Beckham, a bounce back candidate in his own right.

Ben Roethlisberger – Dave vs. Ben

We just sent the content for our Fantasy Football Draft Guide magazine to the publisher this week — available in June on newsstands everywhere! — and in Dave's piece breaking down the potential of 24 of 2019's most disappointing players, he had this to say about Roethlisberger:

"Until there's clear evidence that his arm is back to normal and his receiving corps is genuinely dangerous, no one should expect him to resemble his peak form."

That's tough, but not unfair. Roethlisberger is 38 and coming back from a torn ligament in his elbow, an injury he opted not to have surgery to repair. If he's back to his old self by training camp, obviously ranking him 20th (or anywhere outside the top-12, arguably) will be tough to justify, but this is an incredibly risky profile to put on your roster. Roethlisberger could be a huge value later in drafts, but that's the point — you need to make sure he's a huge value when you draft him.

Gardner Minshew – Heath vs. Everyone

Anyone who listens to the Fantasy Football Today podcast knows this is extremely on brand for Heath, who has been the Gardner Minshew guy from day one. And to be fair, while Minshew was treated as something of a novelty by the NFL community as a whole during his surprisingly successful run for the Jaguars last season, there was actually quite a lot to like about his game for Fantasy purposes. Minshew averaged 19.4 Fantasy points per start as a rookie, just behind what Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray did, and ahead of the likes of Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Philip Rivers, all of whom are ranked ahead of him pretty much across the board. If Minshew's rushing ability was for real, it gives him a better floor for Fantasy than you think, and an improved receiving corps bolstered by the addition of talented rookie Laviska Shenault could help him take another step forward in Year Two.

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