Michigan Economy Up Slightly In November, Index Shows
DETROIT — Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index stabilized in November, rising 0.4 percentage points to a level of 101.0.
The November index reading is 41 points, or 69 percent, above the index cyclical low of 59.9.
The index has averaged 103 through the eleven months of 2012 to November, 12 points above the index average for all of 2011.
“After reaching a recent July peak of 107.8, our Michigan Index declined for three months before stabilizing in November,” said Comerica chief economist Robert Dye. “We see broad-based improvement in the index components for the month, with the exception of a slight decrease in seasonally adjusted tax revenues. November auto sales were strong, at a 15.5 million unit rate, and dipped only slightly in December. Auto sales may decrease from these levels in the first quarter of 2013, as growth in consumer spending eases in reaction to increased federal taxes, and the effects of Hurricane Sandy on vehicle replacement dissipate.”
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and motor vehicle production. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2004 — thus, economic activity at 2004 levels is equal to 100 in the index. Current values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
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