Leach’s Lists: DTM’s Bagels And Lox Week 4 NFL
By Dan Leach/Follow Dan on Twitter @DTMLEACH
As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being.
I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding “Bagels and Lox” 1-10 scale.
The fun continues …
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND 1PM EST TV CBS (CINCI -3)
KEY INJURIES -BROWNS QB Brandon Weeden OUT-THUMB Brian Hoyer will start. BENGALS- CB Leon Hall OUT-HAMSTRING
As great as the “Brian Hoyer Experience” looked great last week and made MSU fans wish he could come back for another year of eligibility, I simply don’t trust him. The Bengals are one of the AFC’s best and while the Browns have historically played them tight in Cleveland the Bengals simply have too much on both sides of the ball for the suddenly optimistic Browns.
Cinci has lost only 3 of their last 17 road games against the spread and I love what I am seeing out of Bengals D to go along with an offense that can hit you like its hot early and often. Cleveland is much improved under new coach Rob Chudzinski, but have a ways to go and the Bengals will show them just how far.
5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE BENGALS -3
NEW YORK GIANTS AT KANSAS CITY 1 PM EST TV FOX (CHIEFS -3.5)
KEY INJURIES -GIANTS G Chris Snee OUT- HIP C David Baas OUT-Neck CHIEFS- NONE
You would think this would be a Vegas trap game as there is no way the G-men could go 0-4 right? WRONG! The Giants are simply a bad football team right now. The defense has holes everywhere and you would think they flat out forgot how to tackle , Eli Manning looks more like Cooper, and the running game is non existent.
I wasn’t buying into the Chiefs until I saw them beat Philly last week.
The Eagles might not be great , but Kansas City made them often look silly in a huge home game for the Eagles and have a coach in Andy “Rib-Eye” Reid that has this teams complete attention. I would not be shocked if this was another laughter like the Giants attempt at humor against Carolina.
6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE CHIEFS -3 (BUY THE HALF POINT DOWN TO 3)
SEATTLE AT HOUSTON 1 PM PM EST TV FOX (SEATTLE -1)
KEY INJURIES -SEATTLE C Max Unger OUT-ARM HOUSTON WR Andre Johnson PROBABLE -SHIN
One of the best mantra’s in the NFL is never bet against a home dome dog. I will take it a step further and NEVER bet against a home dome dog that needs a a win and has the talent to get to the Super Bowl!
The Hawks have looked the part of the NFL’s best team thru three weeks, but they have to travel to the nations midsection and have never historically responded well to trips farther than the near West Coast. They have covered 39% of their games against the spread since 2005 and are only hovering around .500 ATS on the road since Pete “Christmas” Carroll took over.
The Texans have had their offensive problems, but have one of the most balanced attacks in the game and a QB that can distribute the ball all over the place. This is going to be a playoff feel type-of-game and the Texans will show they are to be respected and feared.
6.8 BAGELS AND LOX ON HOUSTON +1
CHICAGO AT DETROIT 1PM EST TV FOX (LIONS -3)
KEY INJURIES -CHICAGO CB Charles “Peanut Butter Jelly” Tillman PROBABLE-GROIN LIONS- RB Reggie Bush PROBABLE-KNEE T Jason Fox PROBABLE-GROIN
The Lions exorcised a huge demon last week by winning for the first time ever in D.C against the Skins, but then got the horrid news of a pizza disaster when WR Nate Burleson broke his arm in an early morning car accident.
The depth at WR is a concern for the Lions, but if a as close to healthy as possibly Ryan Broyles can step up in NB13’s absence all should be good in Motown. I feel the bears are the weakest 3-0 team in the league as the only team of merit they beat was Cincy at home in week 1.
Chicago is 9-1 against the Lions in their last 10 games, but this is the Lions at home, with a ton of confidence coming off the win over Wash. The Lions know how big this game is and they do not like Chicago about as much as North Korea likes freedom.
The Lions will rise to the occasion for the second week in a row and start to show the true potential they have in 2013.
7.4 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE LIONS -3
NEW ENGLAND AT ATLANTA 8:40 PM EST MONDAY NIGHT TV ESPN (ATLANTA -2)
KEY INJURIES -NEW ENGLAND TE Rob Gronkowski QUESTIONABLE-ARM WR Danny Amendola OUT-GROIN ATLANTA-WR Roddy White PROBABLE-ANKLE RB Steven Jackson OUT-HAMSTRING
The Pats might be 3-0 , but as much of that is luck as it is New England playing their brand of football. The offense looked much better in week 3 against an awful Bucs team, but still has tons of holes and depth issues.
Terrific Tom Brady is still one of the best in the league, but when you have know one to throw it to or trust to run there are going to be issues. Atlanta still feels like a top 3 contender to me in the NFC and know how big this game on MNF is for them.
The Georgia Dime is going to be deafening and Matty Ice is going to pick that Pats undersized secondary apart with long balls to Don Julio Jones and Roddy “Piper” White.
Falcons make a major statement on national TV and send the Pats back to the film room to watch an advance copy of the “Breaking Bad” series finale
7.8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE FALCONS -2
DTM’S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK- 65% chance Walter White dies in the finale of Breaking Bad ($100 wins $170 if he does NOT) assist RJ Bell of pregame.com
Season to Date-11-5
Dan Leach is a noted expert in the field of climate change, invented “Nerds Ropes” on a dare, coaches championship 25 and over tee-ball and is the first human being to be carried over the Indian Ocean on a lawn chair filled with helium balloons.