By Dan Leach/Follow Dan on Twitter @DTMLEACH
As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding “Bagels and Lox” 1-10 scale. The fun continues …
JACKSONVILLE AT DENVER 4:05 PM EST TV CBS (DENVER -26.5)
OK this much we know without a doubt. The Jags are as awful as the Broncos are good, but 26.5 points is simply absurd. Big faves in the NFL historically have not done well and after the Broncos epic 51-48 victory over Dallas on the road last week, you know the team will be a little winded. The Broncos are too good to think they can just walk through the motions and beat the Jags, but there is inevitably a little letdown after such a big win and then to play such a bad team. Denver will be in control the whole way, but by the midway point of second half many Broncos starters could be resting and the Jags will have just enough to keep the game within 26.
5.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE JAGS +26.5
DETROIT AT CLEVELAND 1 PM EST TV FOX RADIO 97.1 THE TICKET (LIONS -3)
The Lions were without one of the best in football last week in WR Calvin Johnson at Green Bay and looked lost. He is back in Honolulu blue and silver this week and the Lions are simply the more talented team here. This is the type a game a team that wants to make the playoffs has to win and the Lions know that and have had a very focused week of practice to get prepared . The Browns are definitely much improved and their D can give you fits when playing at its best, but the Lions have too weapons on offense for that to be a factor in the end. Look for Detroit’s offense to look much more like it did in the Bears game then last week in GB.
6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE LIONS -3
NEW ORLEANS AT NEW ENGLAND 4:25 PM EST TV FOX (PATS -1.5)
The Patriots simply don’t have enough offense to keep up with the Saints, whose offense is the NFC’s version of the Denver Broncos. New England is still a good team, but their 4-1 record is inflated and lack of depth always catches up with you as NE learned against the Bengals.. It’s the Pats D that is going to be the Achilles heel on Sunday as Drew Brees and company will pick it apart and will win and could win big.
6.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON NEW ORLEANS
OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY 1PM EST TV CBS (CHIEFS-8)
The Chiefs are for real! The job that Andy Reid has done turning the NFL’s worst from last year into one of this years best has been a joy to watch. KC beats you in all three phases and are one of the more balanced teams I have seen in a while. The Raiders are going to be a lot better this year than most thought and I like the early returns on QB Tattoo, I’m sorry Terrelle Pryor. having RB Darren McFadden able to play Sunday is huge for the Raiders and while it will be tough for an outright win, Oakland will be in this game until the end.
7.4 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE RAIDERS +8
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO MONDAY NIGHT 8:40 PM EST TV ESPN (COLTS -1.5)
I really do like what new Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is doing in SD and in a make-it-or-break-it year QB Phillips Rivers has risen to the occasion. The Colts though are starting to look like a team that could make a serious run at a Super Bowl. Teams that have that kind of potential and talent don’t lose games against teams like the Chargers. The Bolts will be fired up at the start in front of the national TV audience, but in the end the Colts just have too many weapons and a D that can turn a game on its head.
8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE COLTS -1.5
DTM’S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK – Favorites of 18 points or more are 5-23 against the spread in last 28 games.
Season to Date-16-10
Dan Leach is on the front-lines of brokering a deal to end the government shutdown, invented bouncy balls in elementary school, coaches championship 25 and over Whirley Ball, and was just selected to be the first US ambassador to the newly rediscovered lost city of Atlantis.