by Dan Leach
Follow Dan on Twitter @DTMLEACH
As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding “Bagels and Lox” 1-10 scale. The fun continues…….
SAN FRANCISCO VS JACKSONVILLE 1PM (FROM LONDON,ENGLAND) EST TV CBS (NINERS -15)
The biggest question out of this game might be whether the jags should just stay in the tower of London after their likely loss to one of the NFL’s best. While Jacksonville is simply an awful team right now this is an interesting game as the travel across the pond evens things out just enough for me to see the Jags who have been actually playing better over the past couple of weeks. The Niners seem like they are back to normal and have a true shot to get back to the SB, but I think the Jags will treat this like their SB as they will get more love at Wembley then they get at home and will sneak in one of the great backdoor covers in recent memory on a late Justin Blackmon circus TD….Added note winless underdogs week 6 or later in the NFL are 63% ATS since 1992
5.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE JAGUARS +15 CHANCE THAT JACKSONVILLE JUST STAYS IN ENGLAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE 68%
DALLAS AT DETROIT 1 PM EST TV FOX RADIO 97.1 THE TICKET (LIONS -3)
It does not get much bigger for the Lions going into a bye week after their battle with the Boys. The teams are 5-5 in their last 10 played , but the Lions have seemed to win in the bigger spots and come off the stinging loss to Cincy. Dallas is an enigma of sorts as they hung with the Broncos till the end in an absolute shootout , but Tony Romo turned the ball over in a key spot yet again and the D can not stop anyone when it mattered most. Then the Boys had a dominating win last week on the road in Philly and held the Eagles to only 3 points to continue the head scracthing.
This game likely will be played into the 30’s and if the Lions don’t turn the ball over and Matt Stafford continues top play the way he has for most of the season, expect another Romo miscue late to seal the deal. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are primed for huge games and Calvin Johnson should be able to dominate a good, but not great Cowboys secondary. The Lions offensive line which is shaken up a little do to injuries, but will have LT Riley Reiff going and will be the key here keeping Stafford clean when it matters most.
6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE LIONS -3
MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND 1 PM PM EST TV CBS (PATS -6.5)
These two teams seem to always play tough close games even when the Fins aren’t very good and with the Dolphins still having at least a decent shot AFC East and the Pats still taking players off the street, their success can’t last forever. I want to see how QB Ryan Tannehill who is a little banged up, can play against a sub par Pats secondary and if he continues to show that he is capable of playing within himself and not turning the ball over, the Fins have enough balance on offense to keep this game close and possibly even sneak the upset in.
6.5 BAGELS AND LOX ON MIAMI +6.5
PITTSBURGH AT OAKLAND 4:05 PM EST TV CBS (STEELERS-2.5)
This is one of those games that makes you question your morels and what type of late afternoon snacks you want as well. The Steelers have found a way to work themselves back into relevance after an absolutely absurd start. The Raiiiiiiders are a team that has shown much more life then many expected and this is the perfect spot for them at home with a healthy McFadden and Pryor to push back a Pitt D that leaves a lotttt to be desired. It won’t be pretty, but the Silver and Black will be celebrating late Sunday afternoon.
7.4 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE RAIDERS +2.5
WASHINGTON AT DENVER 4:25 PM EST TV FOX (BRONCOS -11.5)
This has all the makings of an epic shootout in the Mile High City. The Sins are playing much better and RG3 seems like he is almost back from the brutal ACL injury. Manning and the Broncos have been the NFL’s best team all year long, but were exposed in a way last week in their loss at Indy. Denver gives up a on of yards in the back third at times and that is something the Skins have been able to do against teams like the Packers in the loss and the Bears in the big win last week. Payton , Welker, Decker and co. will get their yards and scores, but looks for RG3 to use his legs, get the ball to Pierre Garcon and up and coming TE Jordan Reed. This game is going to go down to the wire and the 11.5 points are simply a gift.
8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE REDSKINS +11.5
DTM’S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK- DETROIT PISTONS ODDS TO WIN THE NBA TITLE 75-1 (WAS AS HIGH AT 250-1 OVER THE SUMMER)
Season to Date-20-16
Dan Leach was the biggest player behind the scenes that helped end the government shutdown, once hang glided from Washington State to Baha, Mexico on a dare, invented cheese doodles in 5th grade Home-Ec, and is a finalist for the first human manned mission to Jupiter.