Dan Leach's NFL Locks: Week "7th Heaven" Edition
By Dan Leach
@dtmleach
With the NFL season heating up, so do my NFL picks, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being. I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding lock of the week 1-10 scale. Well we did it -- sweet perfection in week six with five up and five down. Let's make it 10 for 10 in honor of one of the greatest albums in history, Pearl Jam's "Ten" after their epic show in Motown. And....Here....We....Go!
DTM Song Of The Week: Pearl Jam- "Light Years" Live at Joe Louis Arena -- Those that were there on Thursday night in one of hockey's most hallowed grounds know what it felt like to get your face melted time and time again in one of the bands most epic shows in recent memory. Here is a brilliant version of the Binaural classic "Light Years" cause as you know my picks for all of you are light years ahead of the rest!
San Francisco 49'ers at Denver Broncos 8:30 p.m. Sunday TV NBC (Broncos -6.5)
The Niners have been a true riddle to figure out this year. Just as you think they are about to start to get it together, they give up plays that they simply should not be. They are 4-2 and seem to be gaining momentum, but play a Broncos team that really has done nothing wrong this year, save the OT loss in Seattle. Colin Kaepernick has not been playing at the level we are used to seeing and this is going to cost him in the Mile High City. San Fran will hang in this game until the third quarter when Denver will just simply have too much firepower for the Niners to hang.
5.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Broncos -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts 1 p.m. EST Sunday TV CBS 62 (Colts -3)
The Colts are my Super Bowl pick out of the AFC for a reason, this team can do it all. Score points in bunches, win the turnover battle, and are led by one of the best in the game in QB Andrew Pot Luck Dinner. Cinci comes off a tie against Carolina -- yep a freaking TIE. I thought those were only good when it comes to horseshoes and hand-grenades. Nonetheless, the Bengals have been a true up and down team this year and still are likely to be without the services of star WR A.J. Green. The Colts will take advantage and blanket cover Sanu and Gresham and that will leave it up to Giovani Bernard, and that won't be enough. Colts win this one going away and move to 5-2 in front of the Blue and White Army.
6.5 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Colts -3
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions 1p.m. EST Sunday TV FOX (Lions -3)
Ohhhh the storylines in this one. The Lions trying to continue to prove they are an NFC contender. The Saints trying to prove they are not an absolute quagmire of a football team. NOLA comes off a bye and might actually get TE Jimmy Graham Cracker back earlier then expected. The Lions get Reggie Bush back, but will likely be without Megatron and rookie TE Eric Ebron. That would lead you to believe the Lions offense will struggle again like it has without its stars this season...well not so fast my friends. The Saints defense is dreadful and they haven't been clicking on offense either.
This will feel like a weird game at the start with very few points scored in the first stanza, but the Lions will eventually get the depleted offense going and will be in control most of the way. When all is said and done, the NFL's top ranked D will stifle its second top 5 QB so far this season.
LIONS 32 SAINTS 17
7.1 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Lions -3 (buy down to 2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers 4:05 p.m. EST Sunday TV CBS 62 (Chargers -4)
This is one of those games that makes you go early 90's style "HMMMMMM!" Both these teams are extremely talented, but only one of them has gotten the job don so far this year in the 5-1 first place Super Chargers, who after a season opening loss by a point to Zona have won five in a row. The Chiefs have been a mystery and at 2-3 come off a buy , but have left some wins out there so far this year. I think this is where things turn around for K.C and the Cheesesteak man Andy Reid. The DTM Prediction Machine is calling the outright upset, but just for good measure take the four points cause just like a first half timeout, you can't take it with you.
7.4 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Chiefs +4
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST Sunday TV FOX (Cowboys -6.5)
I have been telling you all year long that the G-men are simply a fraud and that became crystal clear to the nation on Sunday Night when the Eagles absolutely pickle slapped the boys from Gotham. It is becoming more and more apparent that the Boys are for real and have a scary balance on both sides of the ball that is a characteristics of teams that have made deep runs in recent years. I think this game will be much like last Sunday nights tilt where it is over about as soon as it begins. Cowboys BIG in front of the nation.
8 on DTM Lock of the Week Meter – Cowboys -6.5
ODDS TIDBIT -- Lions now 12-1 to win the NFC after win over Vikes and 25-1 to win Super Bowl XLIX. They have also moved from the favorite to win the NFC North just three weeks ago to a +$250 second choice behind the favorite Packers who are now -$175 despite the Lions have the tiebreaker over them.
Last week 5-0
DTM's 2014 Record ATS: 22-8
DTM's 2013 Record ATS: 43-26
